As the Q1 earnings season heats up, two of retail’s biggest names — Target Corporation (TGT Quick QuoteTGT - Free Report) ) and Walmart Inc.  (WMT Quick QuoteWMT - Free Report) ) — are once again under the spotlight.

Both companies dominate the U.S. retail landscape, serve millions of consumers daily, and offer investors exposure to defensive consumer spending trends. Yet despite operating in the same sector, the two retail giants are heading into earnings with very different momentum profiles.

Walmart has emerged as one of the market’s strongest large-cap retail performers over the past year, fueled by grocery dominance, e-commerce expansion, and increasing traction among higher-income shoppers. Target, meanwhile, continues to work through slowing discretionary demand, inventory normalization efforts, and margin pressures that have weighed on investor sentiment.

That said, their Q1 results will be closely watched this week, with Target set to report on Wednesday, May 20, and Walmart reporting on Thursday, May 21.

Target & Walmart’s Q1 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus calls for Target’s Q1 sales to be up 2% year over year to $24.46 billion, with quarterly earnings expected to rise 5% to $1.37 per share.

However, Target has missed top-line expectations in three of its last four quarterly reports with an average sales surprise of -0.23%. While Target has put together a string of consecutive earnings beats, the company has posted an average EPS surprise of -2.02% over the last four quarters.

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Pivoting to Walmart, Q1 sales are thought to have increased 5% to $174.56 billion, with quarterly EPS expected to be up 6% to $0.65.

Walmart has exceeded top-line estimates for 24 consecutive quarters with an average sales surprise of 0.68% over the last four quarters. Furthermore, Walmart has exceeded earnings expectations in three of its last four quarterly reports, with an average EPS surprise of 0.8%.

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Walmart Continues to Win on Stability and Scale

Entering the earnings season from a position of strength, Walmart has consistently delivered solid comparable-sales growth, benefiting from consumers prioritizing essentials and value-oriented shopping amid persistent economic uncertainty.

Its grocery business remains a major competitive advantage. Since food purchases are non-discretionary, Walmart has enjoyed steady traffic even as consumers cut back in other retail categories. The company has also successfully expanded its appeal beyond lower-income households, attracting middle and upper-income consumers looking for affordability.

In addition, Walmart’s digital transformation continues to gain momentum. E-commerce sales growth, advertising revenue, and membership programs like Walmart+ have become increasingly important drivers of profit. These higher-margin businesses are offsetting pressure from its traditionally low-margin retail operations.

Analysts are also optimistic about Walmart’s ability to navigate inflationary environments. The retailer’s massive scale gives it pricing leverage with suppliers, while its operational efficiency helps preserve margins better than many competitors.

From a stock-performance perspective, Walmart has rewarded shareholders with stronger gains in recent years, significantly outperforming Target and much of the broader retail sector.

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Target Faces a More Challenging Setup

As for Target, its storyline heading into its Q1 report is more complicated.

Unlike Walmart, Target generates a larger portion of revenue from discretionary categories such as home goods, apparel, and electronics — areas where consumer spending has softened considerably. As inflation and higher interest rates continue to pressure household budgets, shoppers have increasingly shifted spending toward necessities and away from discretionary purchases.

That trend has created a difficult operating environment for Target over the past several quarters.

While Target has made progress on inventory management after major overstock issues hurt profitability in prior years, sales growth remains sluggish compared to Walmart, and investors continue to question how quickly Target can reignite consistent traffic and discretionary demand.

Target has also faced margin volatility due to elevated promotional activity and ongoing investments in store operations and supply-chain improvements.

Still, there are reasons for optimism as Target’s brand remains highly differentiated within retail. Its partnerships, private-label portfolio, and strong customer loyalty provide long-term advantages that are hard to overlook.

If consumer spending trends stabilize later this year, Target could potentially see stronger recovery-driven upside than Walmart.

Valuation Could Become the Key Differentiator

When deciding between these two retail giants, the biggest debate for investors right now may center on valuation. This may certainly tip the scales, as Target’s valuation appears significantly more attractive relative to Walmart’s premium multiple.

Walmart’s operational execution has been excellent, but much of that strength may already be reflected in the stock price. Shares currently trade at a notably higher forward earnings multiple than historical averages at 46X, suggesting investors are already pricing in continued growth and defensive resilience.

Target, on the other hand, trades at a much lower forward P/E valuation of 15X due to weaker operational performance and reduced investor confidence.

For value-oriented investors, that creates an interesting setup. If Target can deliver even modest upside surprises in traffic trends, margins, or forward guidance, its stock could have more room for multiple expansion.

Keeping this scenario in mind, Walmart may still be the safer investment, but Target arguably offers the greater rebound potential.

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Adding to Target's value and making up for its subpar stock performance is a very enticing 3.7% annual dividend yield compared to Walmart’s 0.74%.

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Underlying Metrics Investors Should Watch This Earnings Season

As Q1 results approach, several metrics will likely determine investor reaction for both companies:

Walmart

• Comparable-store sales growth
• Grocery market-share gains
• E-commerce growth trends
• Walmart+ membership momentum
• Operating margin stability
• Consumer spending commentary

Target

• Comparable-sales performance
• Inventory levels
• Gross-margin recovery
• Discretionary category demand
• Traffic and transaction trends
• Full-year guidance updates

Management commentary about consumer behavior may prove especially important this quarter, as investors search for clues about the health of the U.S. consumer and broader retail environment.

Which Stock Looks Like the Better Investment?

For conservative, long-term investors seeking stability, Walmart currently appears to be the stronger choice heading into earnings. Walmart's scale, grocery dominance, digital expansion, and defensive business model continue to support consistent growth even in uncertain economic conditions.

However, for investors willing to accept more risk in exchange for potential upside, Target may offer the more intriguing opportunity. To that point, Target's discounted valuation and recovery potential could create attractive returns if discretionary spending trends improve and management executes effectively.

As Q1 earnings near, both stocks land a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and will be closely watched bellwethers for the retail sector — and for the health of the American consumer overall.